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Over tonnaged and under cargoed threatens this year and the next
When considering the future of global shipping, it is wise to examine not only the forecasts of rival futurologists but also the creeds that shaped conventional wisdom over the last six decades. The assumptions of yesteryear still cast long shadows over today’s maritime realities.
In 1958, John Kenneth Galbraith published The Affluent Society, declaring that “what the poor need is money.” That dictum became a guiding creed for social policy in the West. Yet in recent years, Dr Jordan Peterson has countered with a starkly different view: what the poor need is not money, but purpose. His point is that since the 1960s, governments have poured ever more funds into welfare, but the plight of the poor has not improved. As Robert F Kennedy once quipped with cynical resignation, “I don’t know what the problem is, but I know the answer - more money.” That philosophy still dominates, and its consequences ripple into shipping and trade.
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Oceans won’t get us to net zero – only more spending will
The European Marine Board has released a sobering study that cuts through the hopeful rhetoric surrounding climate policy. Its conclusion is stark: oceans alone will not deliver the carbon dioxide reductions needed to reach net zero.
Instead, governments must brace for more spending, more regulation, and more difficult choices if humanity is to keep global warming within the 1.5°C threshold set in Paris a decade ago. The report, “Monitoring, Reporting and Verification for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal,” was unveiled at COP30 in Brazil. It warns that while oceans can play a role in absorbing carbon, the technologies to harness that potential remain immature, untested at scale, and fraught with uncertainties.
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Looking doubtfully on prospects of the re-birth of a large US merchant fleet
Next month marks a year since US President Donald Trump issued his Executive Order known as the Maritime Action Plan (MAP), a sweeping directive intended to restore the US merchant fleet to something resembling its post–World War II glory. The plan promised to rebuild America’s maritime industrial base, revive shipbuilding, and expand the US-flagged fleet, which has dwindled to less than one per cent of global commercial shipping. Yet 12 months on, the prospects of a genuine rebirth remain doubtful.
From the late 19th century through the mid-20th century, the US Merchant Marine was a formidable force. It supported America’s rise as an industrial power, producing large numbers of commercial vessels that carried a significant share of global trade. Its peak came during World War II, when the United States built more than 5,000 merchant ships, including Liberty and Victory ships, at unprecedented speed. These vessels transported troops, weapons, and supplies worldwide, making the US fleet the backbone of Allied logistics. By war’s end, the US controlled the largest merchant fleet in the world, supported by unmatched shipbuilding capacity and government cargo preference laws that guaranteed work for US-flagged vessels.
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Global Trade at a crossroads: WEF technocracy vs populist realignment
Global trade is entering a period of profound transformation. At stake is not merely the movement of goods, but the ideological architecture that underpins the global economy. On one side stands the World Economic Forum (WEF), championing a technocratic, sustainability-driven reset of global commerce.
On the other, a rising populist movement—led by Donald Trump, Pierre Poilievre, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, and Germany’s AfD - advocates for national sovereignty, economic self-reliance, and strategic decoupling. The outcome of this ideological contest will reshape trade routes, supply chains, and the very geography of prosperity.
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