Checking out positive outcomes from the Covid crisis, but are they likely to become part of day-to-day life?
 In getting back to normal after a needless Covid scare, a number of things will change permanently and some of them, one hopes, will be changes for the good in the world of transportation.
Examples can be found in Rebecca Jeffrey's thoughtful article in London's Air Cargo News. Though she confines herself to the sudden growth of road feeder services in air freight, it doesn't take a great leap of the imagination to extend such musings into other realms of transport.
While air freight itself will no longer enjoy the huge bonanza occasioned by needless rushing about that triggered the explosive development of ecommerce in the Covid crisis, there will be lingering effects worth noting. Such examples of unintended consequences are many and in these cases, beneficial.
For example, in the maritime world, one can see the obvious impact of the Covid scare on the further fortunes of the great looming battle between the US east west coast ports.
It may be too soon to say that the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will be reduced to being mere gateways to California, Nevada and Arizona, no longer serving the entire Lower 48 as they have traditionally done since the dawn of the Asia-Pacific trade. But no longer can this traditional claim be taken for granted.
Too many shippers, sick of impossible west coast congestion and runaway environmental restrictions, have now kicked the LA-Long Beach habit and tried the array of east and Gulf coast ports, where they have come to appreciate the clear advantages and cost savings they offer.
Not the least of which is having cargo land close to where it wants to go rather than having to suffer the costly overland trek across America to get to the vast consumer rich hinterlands east of the Mississippi that spread over 1,000 square miles with near western European consumer-rich densities.
Similarly, Ms Jeffrey finds a similar sea change in attitudes and attendant growth in road feeder services (RFS), which she links to air freight. Making a case study of Luxembourg trucker Wallenborn, which benefited greatly by the changes wrought in the pandemic. This affected mostly its RFS business, which comprises 56 per cent of its overall business, is steadily gaining ground.
The key change in this aspect of trucking is similar to what has happened to reefer ships, with the popularity of the reefer container, which de-emphasised bulk mass markets and breathed life into niche markets, allowing smaller players to make money when before, only heavyweights could participate.
It is somewhat akin to the movement away from the age-old custom of having ships dock close to the population centres - dramatically apparent in the finger piers that ringed the Manhattan waterfront to reduce the cost of cartage by shortening distances to customers. But in the age of containers and block trains, ships then docked far away from urban densities preferring wide open spaces for container yards and easy road and rail access.
The Wallenborn's RFS air cargo volumes in the first five months of 2022 were down five per cent compared with the same period in 2021. This was a period of adjustment. In comparison, 2021’s volumes were up 15 per cent on 2020. However, France, Germany, Italy, Scandinavia and the UK have performed well as RFS export markets from Europe.
“Exports from Europe and most of the major export markets are performing really well. There are still limited transport options from Italy, France, Scandinavia and the UK to Asia Pacific and China, which is why there’s higher demand for RFS. I don’t think we’re going to see a significant increase this year in passenger flights from those countries to China.
“Whereas there is good connectivity from the Benelux and from Germany to and from China, consequently, there’s less demand for export RFS from those countries.”
Since, Wallenborn has seen a “substantial rebound” in automotive, fashion, healthcare and high tech this year. The company has gained new e-commerce customers, while old customers have simultaneously launched new ecommerce routes.
Although flights are slow to come back to parts of Asia Pacific because of Covid restrictions, RFS demand is being driven by more transatlantic passenger flights, especially to and from the Middle East, and to and from the UK, Mr Breakwell said.
“There’s probably more transatlantic flights to the UK this year than there were pre-pandemic so that’s driving demand for RFS in and out of London.
The return of belly capacity has brought with it a renewed need for RFS, but there’s now also a new breed of smaller airports in Europe that have taken on air cargo operations and RFS services.
Stewart Angus, dnata’s regional chief executive for Europe, explains that RFS is not so much a standalone product, but a holistic part of a “one-stop shop” service.
During the Covid crisis, most of the UK’s air cargo volumes were flown into London Heathrow Airport where most of the forwarders are located, reducing the need for RFS, Mr Angus said.
“Over the last six months, as passenger flights have come back, air freight is being rerouted back onto bellies flying into regional airports such as Newcastle or Glasgow or Birmingham,” he said.
Wallenborn's Mr Breakwell points out that despite a “fragmented distribution network”, RFS trucks are travelling longer distances, and that is a clear positive outcome.
"What we’re seeing now is a more resilient landscape in Europe because more airports have embraced cargo. Even though passenger flights are returning we are still seeing an increase in demand from airlines that want to fly to these other airports.”
Freighter aircraft are not flying to major hubs as much, Mr Breakwell said. “They’re flying to places like Cologne, Copenhagen, Maastricht, Munich and Milan. There is a big role for RFS to play because we have to connect these other airports to the major hubs where the forwarders are located.”
“Pre-pandemic, at least four of the top seven European cargo airports were moving away from cargo, towards passengers, because of capacity constraints in terms of slots, real estate and environmental factors, as we’ve seen in airports like Schiphol.”
As major centres become more restrictive, smaller centres are likely to flourish, and with them smaller players may find that one of the unintended consequences - so often regarded in negative terms - may well be a force for good, however unwittingly. |
