Can Nigeria step in to assume continental leadership now that South Africa has slipped from top spot
 With South Africa going the way of Zimbabwe with the seizure of white farms, there those who are now dusting off old ideas about Nigeria becoming the continent's leading nation.
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world.
On the face of it, Nigeria (pop 186 million) has what it takes to assume the leadership of Africa. It is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. As the world's 20th biggest economy, it overtook South Africa to become Africa's largest economy in 2014.
However, say critics, its regional power and capacity sometimes seem to be stunted by internal and external problems that challenge the substance of any such ideas.
On the surface, Nigeria meets the conditions for qualification as a regional hegemon. At the same time, like any other middle power, Nigeria has strengths and weaknesses that both reinforce and deflate its capacity and willingness to play the role of top dog in Africa.
Over the years, Nigeria has been able to use its economic strength positively within Africa. For instance, at the peak of its economic recovery following a devastating civil war, Nigeria persuaded its neighbours to form the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Then Nigerian leader, General Yakubu Gowon, not only played a pivotal role, but also pledged that his country would be responsible for a full one-third of ECOWAS funding.
First, the oil boom of the 1970s brought about a buoyant economy, then increased the impetus of Nigeria's rising continental prominence. The confident posture of Nigerian leadership and the economic prosperity and its increasing well-being allowed a more rigorous foreign policy.
Nigeria became the world's 12th biggest producer of petroleum and the eighth largest exporter, and has the 10th greatest proven oil reserves and joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Oil plays a big role in the Nigerian economy, accounting for 40 per cent of GDP and 80 per cent of state revenues.
Externally, this manifested itself in the leading role Nigeria played during the struggles to secure independence for Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Namibia and Zimbabwe, as well as the dismantling of the apartheid regime in South Africa.
At last, its inability to shake the need for military government to ensure stability ended when Nigeria regained democracy in 1999 with the election General Olusegun Obasanjo, the former military head of state, as the newly elected President of Nigeria.
This ended 32 years of military rule (from 1966 until 1999), excluding the short-lived second republic (between 1979 and 1983) by military dictators who seized power in coups and counter-coups during the period of military juntas before 1999.
Although the elections that brought General Obasanjo to power then and again in 2003 were condemned as unfree and unfair, Nigeria has since shown marked improvements in attempts to tackle government corruption and to hasten development.
While history notes these promising developments, Nigeria still has serious problems that block the road to continental leadership.
First, Nigeria is divided between its simmering Muslim north and predominently Christian south, which is frequently near the boil. Once the Miss World pageant was moved from the nation's new capital Abuja to London after violent protests by Muslims in the northern part of the country that left more than 100 dead and more than 500 injured.
Then rioting erupted after Muslims in the country reacted in anger to comments made by a newspaper reporter. Muslim rioters in Kaduna killed an estimated 105 men, women and children with another 521 injured sent to hospital.
More important, Muslim Boko Haram terrorists have left 12,000 people dead and 8,000 people crippled. Beginning in 2019 they killed six soldiers in an ambush. Benin, Chad, Cameroon and Niger have long since joined Nigeria in a united effort to combat Boko Haram in the aftermath of the Chibok kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls.
In April 2016, over 500 people in 10 villages in predominantly Christian areas in Agatu were murdered by Fulani herdsmen. A visiting Nigerian Senator reported that all the primary and post-primary schools, health centres, churches as well as the police station in the area were destroyed. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) representative said in 20 years of work, she had "never seen such a level of destruction".
While the Nigerian Army has had some success in rescuing a number of Boko Haram kidnap victims, it still far away from eliminating this scourge. Last year, the Nigerian Army killed 15 Boko Haram insurgents and rescued 49 persons in separate encounters between the insurgents and troops throughout the Southern Lake Chad Basin. Kidnap ransom is Boko Haram's primary revenue source.
The Nigerian troops also killed 11 insurgents during a battle in Gamoran Village, while the remaining insurgents were killed escaping. The Nigerian troops rescued four men, 33 women and 16 children from the insurgent bases in the area.
Last October, Islamic Movement of Nigeria activists marched in Abuja to protest the detention of their leader Ibrahim Zakzaky. The group blocked traffic and were met with troops. Rioters threw rocks and the soldiers who fired back killing between 20-40 and wounding 100. The army disputed the figures, saying they only killed three.
In the face of this evidence, one might disqualify Nigeria as fulfilling any grandiose role as continental leader. But on the basis of two points of comparison, it can be said Nigeria's the situation, however bad, is getting better, while South Africa's is getting worse.
South Africa's crimes are fewer in number and represent fewer fatalities, yet they contain an element of racial hatred not present in Nigeria. Nigeria, on the other hand, finds itself in common cause with the forces arrayed against jihadhism worldwide in which it shares a common front with America, Europe, Russia and China, and from which, it can expect support in its campaign to suppress the Muslim terror.
One might dispute the nature of the degree of evils between one and the other, but it is safe to say that South Africa's animus against white is unhelpfully directed against those who provide much, if not most, of the foreign direct investment and development assistance.
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