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Pirates and terrorists may well link up to pose the next big maritime threat
THE defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria now risks the emergence of a maritime threat which may yet haunt the intra-Asia and Asia Europe trade lanes - that is the risk of born-again politically motivated piracy.
While little hard evidence of a link exists between Muslim terrorists and free-enterprising pirates, it has been long suspected as a threat, taken more seriously today as ISIS has lost its source of tax revenue in Syria and Iraq.
Of course, big time piracy has been on the wane for a number of years off the Horn of Africa. A combination of naval patrols and shipboard armed guards have decreased the risk and reduced the threat.
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Intra-Asian market prospects improving but still nowhere near cruising speed
The intra-Asian market is growing, and with rapid urbanisation in the ASEAN region, there is new prosperity resulting in greater numbers of affluent younger consumers. In short, good news for shipping.
This combines with the region's provides products and reefer produce creates a virtuous circle that turns weekday export producers into weekend purchasers of imports - a classic virtuous circle.
India, now ranked No 2 behind China as the top emerging economy with overall cargo through its ports, isexpected to increase volume 67 per cent to 1.75 billion tonnes last year from the 1.05 billion tonnes in 2015.
What China has done in the last 20 years in upgrading infrastructure, India is now doing, and it won't be long before it will have caught up to levels China reached only a few years ago.
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New imperatives reinforce arguments for getting a start on Thailand's Kra CanalWITH China's Belt and Road initiative gaining traction in the intra-Asian world, there is renewed talk among Kra Canal proponents for getting an early start the projected 130 kilometre stretch of the Malay Peninsula in Thailand.
But critics say a Kra Isthmus canal would only save 1,200 kilometres of voyaging, and the benefits would be too small to warrant the expenditure of US$30 billion to $50 billion (depending on its width) to build it.
But from changing times spring new imperatives. A study by the Maritime Institute of Malaysia (MIMA) points out that the Malacca Straits, which today transits 20 per cent of world trade, has only “several more years” before reaching saturation. The straits can only accommodate 122,000 ships a year while the World Bank projects that there will be 122,640 ships needing transit by 2020 - less than two years away.
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Looking at micro shipment potential impact on the macro in intra-Asia trades
With the advent of 20,000-TEU ships - with 23,000-TEUers on the way - there is a tendency to allow the macro to obscure the soaring importance of micro transport, which even in the medium-term may well prove more significant in intra-Asian trade lanes.
Of course, the heavy-weight ships will carry heavy-weight cargoes over the long haul, but as they do, big port-to-big port shipping gets further away from door-to-door, last-mile service.
What's more there is little to worry about at sea on intra-Asian trade lanes. Carriers introduced 10 new services on these lanes last year to capture what London's Drewry Maritime Research says will come close to 30 million TEU when 2017 sums are in and done.
Container Trade Statistics show that intra-Asia volume in January-to-May grew 6.3 per cent year on year, hitting 12.7 million TEU over five months.
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Intra Asia Trade Specialists |
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